The Briefing
- U.S. consumers are expected to spend up to $767 billion this holiday season
- Online and non-store sales are projected to account for $218 billion of that
- On Black Friday alone, U.S. consumers spent $9 billion online—a 22% increased compared to 2019
U.S. Holiday Spending Projected to Reach All-Time High in 2020
Despite the economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19, Americans are still willing to shell out some serious cash this holiday season.
This year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. consumers to spend up to $767 billion through the months of November and December—a 5.2% increase compared to 2019.
Why the increase, given 2020’s economic turmoil? The NRF cites recent job growth, low energy costs, and reduced spending on travel and entertainment as a few key factors driving this year’s projected spending growth.
15 Years of U.S. Holiday Spending
In America, November and December are generally the busiest retail months of the year. Here’s how much U.S. consumers have spent during the holidays since 2005:
| Year | U.S. Retail Spending During Holiday Season (Billions) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | $496.0 | 6.2% |
| 2006 | $512.1 | 3.2% |
| 2007 | $526.0 | 2.7% |
| 2008 | $501.5 | -4.7% |
| 2009 | $502.7 | 1.2% |
| 2010 | $528.8 | 5.2% |
| 2011 | $553.3 | 4.6% |
| 2012 | $567.6 | 2.6% |
| 2013 | $584.4 | 3.0% |
| 2014 | $614.1 | 5.1% |
| 2015 | $632.9 | 3.1% |
| 2016 | $652.6 | 3.1% |
| 2017 | $687.4 | 5.3% |
| 2018 | $700.7 | 1.9% |
| 2019 | $729.1 | 4.1% |
While this year’s spending is set to break records, the shopping experience will likely look different for many consumers. For instance, 59% of U.S. shoppers plan to do more shopping online this year, in an attempt to stay safe during the pandemic.
»What about other major retail holidays? Read our full article How Holiday Spending Compares Around the World
Where does this data come from?
Source: U.S. Census via National Retail Federation
Note: NRF holiday spending is defined as the months of November and December. NRF’s forecast excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
