The U.S. States Most Vulnerable to a Trade War
Last year, nearly $4 trillion of U.S. economic productivity was the result of international trade.
However, with talk of a trade war heating up, there is a real possibility that the global trade landscape could shift dramatically over the coming months and years.
Any such shifts wouldn’t likely impact the country in a uniform and evenly distributed fashion – instead, any impending trade war would pose the largest direct risk to states that are dependent on buying and selling goods on international markets.
The States Most at Risk
Today’s visualization comes to us from HowMuch.net, and it shows every U.S. state and district organized by GDP size, as well as percentage of GDP resulting from international trade.
Here are the 10 states most reliant on international trade:
| Rank | State | GDP (2017) | Exports + Imports (2017) | Trade (% of GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Michigan | $515 billion | $200 billion | 38.9% |
| #2 | Louisiana | $243 billion | $94 billion | 38.7% |
| #3 | Kentucky | $204 billion | $78 billion | 38.1% |
| #4 | Tennessee | $345 billion | $112 billion | 32.6% |
| #5 | South Carolina | $219 billion | $70 billion | 31.9% |
| #6 | Texas | $1,692 billion | $527 billion | 31.2% |
| #7 | Indiana | $360 billion | $92 billion | 25.7% |
| #8 | Washington | $503 billion | $127 billion | 25.3% |
| #9 | New Jersey | $589 billion | $147 billion | 25% |
| #10 | Illinois | $818 billion | $201 billion | 24.6% |
On a percentage basis, Michigan tops the list with 38.9% of the state’s GDP reliant on international trade.
The Lowest Risk States
On the flipside, here are the states or districts with less to lose in the event of a trade war.
| Rank | State (or District) | GDP (2017) | Exports + Imports (2017) | Trade (% of GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #51 | District of Columbia | $132 billion | $2 billion | 1.5% |
| #50 | Wyoming | $41 billion | $2 billion | 5.0% |
| #49 | South Dakota | $49 billion | $3 billion | 5.1% |
| #48 | Hawaii | $88 billion | $5 billion | 5.4% |
| #47 | New Mexico | $98 billion | $6 billion | 6.0% |
| #46 | Oklahoma | $190 billion | $15 billion | 8.0% |
| #45 | Colorado | $341 billion | $28 billion | 8.1% |
| #44 | Virginia | $511 billion | $46 billion | 8.9% |
| #43 | Nebraska | $119 billion | $11 billion | 9.1% |
| #42 | Maine | $61 billion | $6 billion | 9.7% |
Washington, D.C. tops the list, with only 1.5% of its regional GDP tied to trade.
This makes sense since The District’s economy is mostly linked to the government, service, and tourism sectors. Nearby Virginia also has surprisingly little international trade, at just 8.9% of its economy.
Want to see more on international trade? See the numbers behind the world’s closest trade relationship in this infographic.
